MARCH 19-21, 2003
20TH PACIFIC SCIENCE CONGRESS
BANGKOK, THAILAND

WELCOME to the 20th Pacific Science Congress and to Symposium 2.2 - Climate and Extreme Events in the Asia-Pacific: Enhancing Resilience and Improving Decision-Making. We are delighted that you were able to join us for this important event and we look forward to your contributions to our deliberations. Your special expertise and experience make you uniquely qualified to contribute to the Symposium deliberations and help us develop a regional synthesis of lessons learned and future opportunities. Through sharing our individual experiences and jointly exploring lessons learned, we can develop a framework for taking advantage of new scientific insights and technological capabilities to improve decision-making and a future in which Asia-Pacific communities strengthen their resilience in the face of climate-related extreme events .

Background

According to the 2000 World Disaster Report, over 80% of the world's climate-related disasters occurred in Asia (International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2000). While acknowledging the lack of sufficient observational data to accurately assess trends and the need for enhanced spatial detail in models used to project changes in some phenomena, the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC TAR) provides some estimates of scientific confidence in observed and projected changes in extreme events (IPCC, 2001). Many of the conditions discussed, such as more intense precipitation events, increased summer continental drying with associated risk of drought and changes in tropical cyclone wind and precipitation intensities, have significant potential consequences for countries of the Asia-Pacific Region. Similarly, the IPCC TAR also points to likely increases in the extremes of drying and heavy rainfall associated with El Niño and an increase in the variability of Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IPCC, 2001). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is associated with changes in patterns of extreme events such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones that already present significant challenges to Asia-Pacific countries.

During the past decade, a number of research programs designed to enhance our understanding of the nature and consequences of climate-related extreme events in the Asia-Pacific region and explore the application of climate information to support decision-making have emerged. Some of the more prominent examples include: the Extreme Climate Events (ECE) program implemented by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC); Climate Information Applications in Bangladesh based on models developed by the University of Colorado's Program on Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (PAOS); the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC); regional climate assessments such as the East-West Center's recently completed Pacific Islands regional contribution to the first U.S. National Assessment; and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Program (PICCAP) coordinated by the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). In parallel, regional organizations like ADPC, the South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission (SOPAC) and the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) have been developing integrated assessment techniques and new technologies to support the development of comprehensive emergency management programs in the region. To date, however, no attempt has been made to synthesize the results of these individual programs in terms of their implications for the development and application of useful and usable climate information in the Asia-Pacific region.

National governments, regional organizations and international scientific, development and donor agencies are increasingly recognizing the importance of enhancing resilience to climate-related extreme events as an integral component of sustainable development planning. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Organization for Economic Cooperation in Development (OECD), the International Union of rthe Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the World Bank, the Asian and Inter-American Development Banks and other partners have begun a dialogue on how to integrate adaptation to climate variability and change into poverty reduction programs.

The concept of "climate risk management" - reflecting a more effective integration of climate adaptation with comprehensive emergency management programs -- continues to take shape with UNDP Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), disaster management agencies and humanitarian relief organizations actively leading those discussions. Early discussions of planning for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report suggest increasing attention on regional consequences with the effects of extreme events highlighted as a particularly important focus. One common element of all of these discussions is a recognition that adaptation to natural climate variability not only promises to reduce vulnerability in the near-term but also provide insights and experience that will prove valuable in enhancing resilience to long-term climate change as well. Some of the seminal articulations of climate risk management are provided in your workbook and throughout the workshop, it is hoped that participants will comment on their reaction to these concepts and the potential for their application in program development and risk-related planning.

Symposium Themes

To that end, the Pacific Science Association, the East-West Center and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center have convened this Symposium on Climate and Extreme Events in the Asia-Pacific: Enhancing Resilience and Improving Decision-Making as part of the 20th Pacific Science Congress. The two-and-one-half (2 ½) day Symposium has been organized in a manner that facilitates the sharing of individual experiences and discussion of integrating themes that will provide a framework for comparing individual programs and identifying common problems and opportunities. Individual presenters and plenary discussants have been asked to address the following integrating themes:

· Communication issues related to information content, format and dissemination as well as the identification of critical information gaps based on past experience;
· Participation issues related to effective engagement of relevant stakeholders and establishing an effective, interactive dialogue with users of climate information;
· Information use issues related to how climate information has been and can be used to support decision-making including discussions related to responding to individual events and the routine integration of climate information in development and planning in the region;
· Institutional capacity issues which include discussion of institutional barriers as well as opportunities to enhance the capabilities of current or emerging boundary organizations in the Asia-Pacific region; and
· Scientific and technical issues with particular attention to identify critical information gaps and future priorities.

We hope that the Symposium will provide an opportunity for participants, managers and sponsors of these various programs to collectively review the insights being gained from their individual efforts and develop a shared vision for the future.

Symposium Organization

The Symposium will begin on the morning of March 19 with an opening keynote lecture by Dr. Michael (Mickey) Glantz lecture entitled "Problem Climates or Problem Societies?" This PSC Keynote Address will provide insights into the nature of the climate-society interactions that define a community's vulnerability to changes in climate and set the stage for our subsequent discussions of the challenges and opportunities we face in working to enhance the resilience of Asia-Pacific communities.

Following Dr. Glantz' presentation and an overview of the Symposium objectives by the Symposium co-chairs, we will begin a set of paired sessions of individual presentations on national experiences designed to reduce vulnerability to extreme events through the development and application of climate information. Glenn Dolcemascolo, ADPC, will moderate the first of these sessions, focusing on experiences in Asia with presentations on experiences in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Bangladesh. Immediately following lunch, the second session on national experiences will focus on Pacific Island jurisdictions with insights from speakers representing the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC), the South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission (SOPAC), the Federated States of Micronesia and Australia. Eileen Shea, East-West Center, will moderate this Pacific panel.

These national perspectives will then be complemented with presentations focused on the challenges and opportunities for climate forecast applications in climate-sensitive sectors throughout the Asia-Pacific Region. Moderated by A. R. Subbiah, ADPC, this session will include presentations on agriculture, water resources, public health, tourism and urban and coastal infrastructure. This session will include presentations from representatives of Indonesia, the Philippines, the World Health Organization, ADPC, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of Palau.

On the morning of March 20, the third Symposium session will focus on the capabilities, responsibilities, programs and plans of key regional institutions and programs engaged in climate and extreme event forecasting, vulnerability assessment and applications in the Asia-Pacific Region. This session will begin with a panel presentation highlighting key issues in the four integrating themes - communications, participation, institutional capacity and scientific and technical issues. In the context of this opening panel, individual Symposium participants will be afforded the opportunity to make brief (5-10-minute) presentations to share some of their own experiences, programs and plans. We anticipate that these presentations will include representatives of:

· Regional forecast, applications and risk assessment programs;

· Forecast and applications programs of national meteorological services and regional specialized meteorological services and WMO planning for regional climate services;

· Regional organizations engaged in support for disaster management, response and recovery in the Asia-Pacific region;

· National, regional and international development and donor agencies; and

· Scientific and technical institutions and agencies supporting work related advancing the development, dissemination and use of climate forecast and assessment information in the Asia-Pacific region.

A detailed agenda for this session will be developed during the first day of the Symposium in consultation with Symposium participants. If you have not already notified the Symposium co-chairs of your interest in making a presentation, please be sure to do so by the afternoon break on March 19.

Following these individual presentations, Symposium participants will engage in a facilitated discussion of how the individual and shared assets of these regional institutions and programs might be applied in the context of an integrated program of climate risk management in the Asia-Pacific. To support these deliberations, this notebook contains working drafts of a number of documents that describe planning and program development in integrated climate risk management, climate and poverty and climate risk assessment. This session will provide an opportunity for us to explore some of these emerging concepts and begin to develop a practical framework to help guide their implementation.

On the morning of March 21, Tom Brennan, UNDP Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery, will provide a keynote address on Climate and Disaster Management that will help place our discussions of regional experiences in a broader context and lay the groundwork for our final day of deliberations. Following Mr. Brennan's address, we will hear from an invited panel of experts who will provide their own summary of the insights drawn from individual presentations and guide a closing plenary discussion of lessons learned and future opportunities in the context of the Symposium's integrating themes. These closing panel discussants were selected on the basis of individual expertise and connection to programs and institutions in a position to further advance the emergence of an effective climate information service(s) in the Asia-Pacific Region including: Mickey Glantz (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) who will moderate the session); Michael P. Hamnett (University of Hawaii), Kamal Kishore (UNDP Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery); Jim Salinger (New Zealand National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research); Maxx Dilley (International Research Institute for climate prediction of Columbia University); and Roger Pielke, Jr. (Center for Science & Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado). Eileen Shea, Symposium Co-Chair, will provide a quick summary of the key points presented by the panelists and the findings and recommendations that emerge from this closing session will provide the foundation for a regional synthesis of lessons learned and future opportunities. The Symposium will conclude with closing remarks from Symposium Co-Chairs.

Symposium Sponsors

The Symposium on Climate and Extreme Events in the Asia-Pacific: Enhancing Resilience and Improving Decision-Making was made possible through a contract to the East-West Center from the Office of Global Programs of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and our special thanks go to Candyce Clark from that office whose unwavering support was invaluable. Additional funding was made possible through the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center's Extreme Climate Events program with funding from the Office of Global Programs of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance. The Symposium Co-Chairs would also like to thank the UN Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery for their financial support which helped ensure the participation of a diverse mix of representatives from throughout the Asia-Pacific region and we would like to specifically acknowledge the work of Tom Brennan in securing this support. In addition, the East-West Center and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center provided both financial and in-kind support for the Symposium.

Charge to Participants

The Symposium has been organized as a highly-interactive, two-and-a-half-day event and we look forward to your active participation. Your individual contributions and collective dialogue over the next few days will be the key to our success. Thank you, again, for coming to Bangkok and helping to make the Symposium the hallmark event that we know it will be!

Symposium Co-Chairs

Eileen L. Shea		A.R. Subbiah
East-West Center		Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

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